Indonesia Wildfire Analysis: Evidence-Bounded Kalimantan Fire & Land-Cover Research
A gated, reproducible geospatial research program that separates validated evidence from unsupported human-fire narratives. It combines frozen study registrations, exact daily matched opportunity sets, out-of-time evaluation, and coordinate-free public reporting. The completed Phase 3 estimates a +5.89 percentage-point association between fire detection and losing at least 10% of pre-index natural forest within one year (95% CI: +4.52 to +7.25) across 7,138 complete exact matched sets. A positive pre-exposure negative control and incomplete support rule out causal, intent, ownership, legality, profit, or government-performance claims. The aggregate, coordinate-free report is public; the research source is private. A separate prior-year AlphaEarth ablation adds out-of-time predictive information only.
Proof points
- 7,138 Complete Sets
- +5.89pp Association
- 1,913 Locked Test Sets
Technologies
Python, Google Earth Engine, MapBiomas, ERA5-Land, AlphaEarth, Next.js, CesiumJS, Vercel
Links