World Cup 2026 Prediction Engine
A probability-first forecasting system that predicts three-way international match outcomes from leakage-safe Elo, FIFA ranking, form, rest, venue, and competition features, then propagates that uncertainty through the official 48-team World Cup structure. Across 384 chronologically held-out World Cup matches and six rolling World Cup windows, the selected logistic model matched the Elo-Poisson baseline's 56.0% accuracy while improving log loss and Brier score by roughly 1.3%. In the completed 2026 tournament snapshot, it called 44/72 group matches correctly and 24/31 evaluated knockout advances correctly.
Proof points
- 56.0% Backtest Accuracy
- 44/72 Group Calls
- 24/31 KO Advances
- 495 Bracket Mappings
Technologies
Python, scikit-learn, Sports Analytics, Data Analysis, Pandas, Elo, Monte Carlo, Streamlit, pytest
Links